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What happened next? SP500: The drop started 2 days later, having risen from a close of 1140.6 on 23rd to a high on 27th of 1146.84. It then fell to a low of 1076.32 on 12 May 04, with one minor correction in early May... a good call on the index of a 6% or so fall. |
The US S&P500 up to the weekend 23 Apr 04 - having moved well into the red zone two columns back a rapid fall from 88 down to 60 shows suggests a bear market starting - a correction is underway, but look at the chart... do YOU think it's going to stay in the red zone much longer? Look how quickly this market has swung from between the red and green zone in the past - with precious little time in the middle This suggests it's a poor time to enter long trades, the %10 is showing a 'Bull Trend resumed' at 58 - a short term bullish indication.... a short term bullish reaction in a longer term Bear move anyone? |
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...and even later on.... this is the S&P500's BP as 2004 nears its end, on 29 Jan 2004. This chart doesn't go as far back as the one above, so it's not as squashed up. The drop to 1076.32 mentioned before continues, on this BP chart the final column (X's) show the SP500 rebounding from near the green area in late August - the buy signal on the SP500 comes in on 23 August as this column starts upwards. Low in mid August was about 1062, the buy signal appears when the index was just through 1100 - it's now at around 1213. On this chart the index has been a hold ever since that buy. Sadly we'd expect the market to be topping now... the BP suggests it's too late to be a bull, we'd look for a drop below the pink area next. |
Despite the 'toppy' nature of the market charts, most browsers prefer to see buy candidates rather than short trades - so here's one of relatively few candidates produced in a quick scan... looking for Buy signals and then seeing what came up - I was looking for interesting charts so left the scanning fairly loose, it 61 potential buys in the S&P500. Choosing to add a 10% profit filter this reduces to 25 'hits' - you can make the filters as tight as you like to let more or less shares through. AN then has a Bear Signal Reversal showing, and is currently sitting at resistance with a potential profit, if the target is reached, of 18%. The volatility information (for those who read the newsletters) is favourable for the trade, and when 2.94.04 goes on release (this is a Beta screenshot) you'll find charts carrying 'upturn' and 'downturn' warnings alerting the user to short term signals of a possible trend change |
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What happened next? AN: this top was the best it managed really, peaking at 17.30 a day or two later, since then AN has bounced between 15.30 and 17.20 approx - so not a good buy!
